Headline CPI came in at +3.78% year-over-year. But the components tell a more nuanced story:
đź”´ What’s pushing inflation UP:
• Gasoline: +28.4% — the single biggest driver
• Energy overall: +17.9%
• Transportation Services: +4.2%
• Apparel: +4.2%
• Food Away from Home: +3.6%
🏠What matters for housing:
• Shelter: +3.3% — still well above the Fed’s 2% target
• Owners’ Equivalent Rent: +3.3%
• Rent: +2.8%
Shelter remains the stickiest component of CPI. It’s the largest single weight in the index (~35%) and it’s not coming down fast enough for the Fed to declare victory.
🟢 Where inflation is cooling:
• Used Vehicles: -2.7%
• Medical Care: -0.5%
• New Vehicles: nearly flat at +0.2%
Core CPI (ex-food and energy) at +2.74% is close to target — but strip out shelter and the picture looks much cleaner than the headline suggests.
For Denver real estate: elevated shelter costs in CPI reflect the national picture. Locally, our market is telling a different story — rising inventory and longer days on market suggest the demand side is softening even as replacement costs keep climbing.
đź“Š Data: BLS via FRED | Analysis: Joe Krajnc
